The problem is actually not of strength, difficult to solve. American model is an example of the war. We can model the kind of war game as the United States, then the problems that plague us now will not be a problem.
we can to recover the territory, in order to bear the loss of national dignity, as long as this loss is within the acceptable range. Now playing, the loss is too large. of both offensive and defensive force levels are obviously quite inadequate. I doing here an inappropriate metaphor, the conflict in the South China Sea and Vietnam out of a single split. If the current war in China and Vietnam to resolve the conflict, the situation look like? It is hard to imagine that our country can achieve the American air strike the extent of air power to collapse solely on the strength of the Vietnamese armed forces structure. If you want a complete victory over Vietnam, I am afraid of the ground advance had to go this route. In this case,cheap UGG boots, it means that if a long war. a direct result of protracted is to make more money be lost. to think from another perspective, if our country's armed forces is very strong, has come to the world's top level, then even the outbreak of war, the Chinese confidence in the world will be greatly increased. it can be expected , the rate of capital flight from China will be greatly reduced. Meanwhile, the military system performance enhancement, the war will greatly accelerate the speed. This has reduced the capital loss of time. double contrast, it is obvious can be found in military powerful circumstances, the need for war will significantly reduce the cost.
above, the author only as an example to illustrate the problem in Vietnam, but it does not mean that I believe that the starting point of future collapse or other ASEAN Vietnam countries. war but a means to achieve the interests of countries. When have better means to achieve the same or even greater benefits, the state will not hesitate to choose natural. Even when the war inevitable choice, in different directions have different interests . The author has never been that direction should be an entry point on the South China Sea.
a long time, I view an entry point for the collapse has been shaken. has swung between Taiwan and Japan, too, even in a period of time that the breaking direction should be Taiwan. Now, I confused the starting point set at breaking the Japanese direction. this inside, the biggest factor is to recognize the change, but also the existence of factors changing international situation. After all, the world no shortage of hard board unanticipated events. Why Japan? of course not only because of the history of Japan and China on the blood feud. In my view, the need for such a choice is not only history but also the need of reality. When the history of the needs and real needs After overlap, there is no reason to continue to hesitate. Of course, I still spent it here to tell endless historical reasons. After all, the condemnation of the error in the history of Japan is not a key part of this article.
Japan is a power, His strength than Taiwan, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries than the strong. China's rise on the road, in theory, the number of war is better than less. Therefore, China should not be from weak to strong way to address current conflict. Indeed, the first conflict to resolve the difficulty and the weak force is relatively low. But the difficulty of low-income means low. Meanwhile, China to solve the first problem of the war risk is also large. whether individuals or countries, are there left to chance. China's military did not pass the validation before the war, people have to take risks to compete for that great interest. When the interests of the large to a certain extent, the nature there is no lack of people crazy.
contrast, the Taiwan issue is whether South China Sea issue, the degree of hostility to be far lower than the conflict against Japan. in the territorial waters dispute between China and Japan, at least from the author's point of view, a peaceful solution difficult. both China and the Taiwan issue is resolved before or the South China Sea For Japan, the lack of adequate deterrent.
in the East China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan on the issue of conflict, disputes and the reality of history together to form a knot. This means that both China and Japan can not view this issue of pure interest, with more or less emotional way of thinking. What's more, view from East Asia's future, I have to say, maybe a war, but to let the two return to the normal state of mind. Chinese vengeance. Japan's sense of superiority coupled with the psychological fear of retaliation, in fact, the two major power in East Asia is not like any other body of bilateral relations between the operation of the reasons for that. Of course, this point of view, proposed reference only, and not the exact case to prove. only from the psychological point of view can be used as a speculation.
Tiger Mountain than large, so the knock on Tiger Mountain to the earthquake. knock Japan, is enough to shock Taiwan and ASEAN countries. Under the strong support of military forces, whether war or peace, the result can not change, that is, the Diaoyu Islands and East China Sea returned to the hands of China. If the Japanese retreat, then he is a role model. If Japan chose war, then go with the Japanese make the defeat of one of the most vivid warning.
Japan itself is a borrowing Taihu, the world is an important financial center. this point, Taiwan and ASEAN countries can not match. either war or peace, as long as the Japanese China's victory in the conflict to an end, it suffices to prove the extent of national security between China and Japan. The difference is, if the war, the money ran quickly. whether fast or slow, this part of the money I am afraid that many will choose more than Japan potential has a more powerful China as a destination. Just think, even when the surrounding area could not threaten Japan's national security environment of the time, then who would be able to threaten our national security environment? Taiwan and South China Sea issue, whether or not immediately solution, the outside world to China will increase confidence in the safety of a higher level. This is talking with the facts.
Leaving aside the case of compromise with Japan, only that if the war situation. a war, it must be a minimum price to the effect of three wars, this is the most cost-effective war. although I would also like to fight in Vietnam when the Vietnamese provocation, provocation, when playing in Indonesia in Indonesia, but I know not. current national competition, has not only the development of national productivity issues, but also to consider the potential use of resources. Even if China's real productivity to catch up or surpass the United States, it does not mean that China will have the United States now has a dominant position. it can only prove that China already has dominant position as the United States to obtain a potential basis for the general Bale.
If the Kosovo war was a war against European currencies, then we have reason to believe that the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran have been affected in China national security. Native American before the terrorist attacks was 9.11, the United States for the slow response to terrorism and the United States after the terrorist attacks were unprecedented response to not be a class. the reasons for this difference is terrorism reflects his tremendous threat to the United States. This threat has been enough to affect investor confidence.
Thus, the U.S. launched the war immediately. the United States to prove they are better than any other country in the world security. no matter who mess to the United States, wherever he goes, he will put to the back. So, people experience in Afghanistan to the United States the ability to subvert the regime of a country. The Taliban regime in Afghanistan Ninety percent of the control area, but eventually lost to the United States quickly support the Northern Alliance. in support of the U.S. before the Northern Alliance can only occupies a corner of the hard support. Thus, the world's confidence in the United States has come back. people have seen the powerful war machine the United States can defeat all opponents While this situation may not last forever.
, of course, also have collateral effects. Russia national scale and economic development due to the constraints, to once again threaten the U.S. position is a very long way off. But China has been significantly affected. regardless of whether the United States intends to contain China from the west. At least the world that China-US relationship is competition. the United States into China's west, it would mean that China and the United States and the safety of the competition down.
China's development trend is clear, the potential is enormous, but not the United States, after all, the most realistic financial competitors. can be seen from the Kosovo War, the threat to Europe or the United States see very clear. After two world wars and the decline of a true renaissance in Europe again. When the euro, the U.S. realized that the best loan of his party's position is threatened. geopolitics, the United States and Europe is still the relationship between the allies. However, financial point of view, the contradiction between America and Europe is very clear. the Cold War is over. fierce confrontation no longer exists in the land of the European continent. the disappearance of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union to Europe, greatly increased the security level. In supported by a strong economic foundation, the European Jieqianzige was immediately elevated to a new level.
Ever since, the Iraq war broke out. United States once again proved with his armed forces, his control over the world. more troops will remain in the Middle East. Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Lebanon-Israel conflict, but also the entire Middle East seems unstable. World oil prices rose. U.S. afraid? Many people think the U.S. needs low oil prices. But In fact, the virtual economy of the United States supported by the capacity for high energy prices is much stronger than China, even stronger than in Europe.
particular note is. a world-wide unconscious in the United States military forces continuously show the formation. in the world, only the most U.S. oil security is guaranteed. who do not have access oil, the United States need them oil. True enough points to oil a day, Americans will be able to use their tanks to get the aircraft oil. In Iraq, the Americans have proved this point. Americans are determined to stay in the Middle East is very strong. in the Middle East to maintain a strong military is supporting the confidence of the world the best means for the United States. In the American bayonet before, whether it is Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or the UAE but also all the same. they need good relations with the United States.
Saddam Hussein existed so long. even from the Gulf War began to count, there are more than ten years time. the United States why people choose to get rid of it in 2003? is just a continuation of the war on terror it? I clearly remember. Saddam Hussein before the war was declared one thing, that is, oil exports will be changed to Euro.
leveraging the United States, the world gave him one of the most important means of working is the right of its coins. oil in U.S. dollars instead of gold to ensure that the U.S. monetary credit. now what Iraqi oil exports to the balance sheet? I did not go to investigate In fact, there was no need investigation. the one hand, the actions of Saddam had a change in oil-exporting countries, on the other hand it may play a negative lead. So, the Americans move. Americans want from the Middle East Oil had recognized that ability to threaten the United States the result of borrowing money.
Europe, Germany and France had been opposed to the United States launched the Iraq war. It is in their interest. They compete with each other in the leadership of the euro rights. But in the attitude towards the war in Iraq, their interests are the same. Iraqi oil in euros choice is definitely a great opportunity to the euro. while there may be more difficult to measure the lead role. Therefore, even if with the United States against each other, they balk. In order to achieve their goals, they also united Russia. The problem is that they underestimated the determination of the United States. Even Americans do not care about the Council's attitude on this issue. In reality the interests of large before the United States is willing to loss of soft power as the price. Thus, the euro had to continue to be vulnerable posture in the contest with the U.S. waiting for the opportunity.
solve the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. If things so, Americans can not unlimited stay in the Middle East. at least, Americans can not make the massive Army long stay the Middle East. if Iraq stabilized quickly, Americans have to go. If the long-term instability in Iraq, the American people will not allow a second Vietnam War appears. Thus, the Iranian nuclear issue in a timely manner onto the front. With the Iranian nuclear problem, then the stability of Iraq seems to be not just a separate issue. Iran, consciously or unconsciously shaped by the United States became a solution in Iraq the key. even the Iranians themselves have had such a feeling. the world also have a such a feeling. Americans for negotiations with Iran on Iraq. The whole world saw.
Americans long stay the Middle East area becomes a matter of course. He did not suffer losses of more soft power. because it cost an earlier time in the war in Iraq has been paid. Although the situation in Iraq a little out of control, but definitely not beyond control level. U.S. military casualties in Iraq is not large within the unimaginable proportions. such losses, and gains compared to perfectly affordable. compared to European interests so lost a day, can be ten million or even billions of units of data. Thus, the United States is not as advertised himself as everyone is equal. the lives of soldiers in the interests of the face can still be exchanged. as long as the interest is large enough. The U.S. government will use their the lives of young soldiers have exchanged a smile with satisfaction the capitalists. The U.S. government before this kind of exchange relationship is told that the soldiers should have the right to know? Of course, this problem is not the point, I here only slightly so a feeling nothing more.
Iran is also changed for the euro clearing out. Why? Because to win over the European euro clearing. In fact it is the illusion of Iran. he does so will only make him more dangerous. Iraq war has proven this. obstruct European politics is impossible to stop the fact the U.S. military strike. This is the sense of powerlessness in the face of power. I believe we all see Europe on the Iran issue and Iraq's attitude changed. clear understanding of the balance of power in Europe after no further attempt to contain the United States on their own, choosing instead to pressure Iran to the United States to compromise.
the reason Iran has not by the United States is hit, in fact, the United States the strategy. whether it is done in Europe, or Iran do, the impact of the United States is not particularly great. The United States also failed to attack Iran, it is because Iran is less than the damage he caused Iran to the enormous problems interests.
After all, in the United States occupation of Iraq, Iran's influence can not penetrate. In other words, Iran can affect essentially the only himself. Through this confrontation is not the state of war, so that United States continues to look more and more entrenched in Iraq sufficient reason. Even if the general public aware of their husbands, sons to the interests of capitalists in the war, they also have to consider that Iran has nuclear weapons in the Middle East for the U.S. anti-democratic transformation. in the United States ordinary people, the spread of democracy the existence of the concept of faith has a long history.
Just think, once the U.S. occupation of Iran, and Iraq has calmed down, and after that? Now, Iraq is not peaceful, even calm, Iraqi government also needs to resist the power of the United States from Iran's How will the two governments choice. If the United States have their own strong support he had to get rid of the Settlement of absolute dominance. just an Iranian, or inability to shake the whole United States, eligible to borrow money. The euro, too, is impossible because one of Iran to become a truly world-class currency.
Therefore, I expect, Iran should be at a stage where it is safe. now Iran itself is always an atmosphere of tension, while the U.S. is always like waves. do a general outbreak of war will appear tomorrow. Undeniably, the actions of Iran to the United States has been to prove his powerful anti-strike capability, also killing the U.S. military to show his ability to play a deterrent role. But when a large profit to some degree when, what risks are worth taking. Iran is now the actions that are United American intentions. against the more intense the feeling, the greater the impact on Europe.
bottom line that the U.S. should be nuclear weapons. Iran is not North Korea. North Korea after China. Europe is absolutely powerless in the Middle East to defend Iran. just not enough power, nor can there be such a determination. If Iran really has nuclear weapons. that the U.S. Middle East policy is also a great hit. Israel has nuclear weapons, has given way to the United States to contain the oil-producing Middle East the desire of countries possessing nuclear weapons is very difficult. and if coupled with an Iranian, then the weight would be too great.
under the domino effect in the Middle East are springing up are usually a large number of nuclear states, and that the United States after Middle East policy will be bound by these nuclear weapons. America can not sit back and watch the emergence of this situation. In fact, from the Iraq war began, China's interests is also accompanied by the damage and damage European interests. Of course, the RMB is not yet may reach the extent of the euro. So it seems we are being hurt far less than Europe. If a more long-term future, this situation has not been significantly changed, but also much of the same victim in this situation. < br> Iran, China put to the test of political wisdom. to persuade Iran to the dialogue with the United States to seek a use of force against the United States must pay a heavy price for the situation as a soft power. you know, in recent years, greatly damaged America's soft power. the one hand, defiance of United Nations presence, on the other hand, appeared prisoner abuse scandal. while China's soft power but now to more than hard power. The reason can be called soft power, strength, because the ultimate soft power is converted into hard power. If America's soft power has again been critical of trauma, then the national policy for the future implementation of the United States absolutely has a great negative impact. the loss of soft power and hard power loss characteristics are different. the loss of soft power is a long-term, difficult to measure exactly. It is because there is no way to accurately calculate, will be more afraid of the Americans.
early as during the war in Iraq, China's attitude is not it clear trend of Justice. because that field is not the nature of the struggle by the Chinese or Iraq to decide. US-European conflict has already decided it was the confrontation between the two economies. China is no need to pay unnecessary price for this. If there is no way the European forces to stop living in the Middle East if the United States, China it is even more do not have this capability. On the Iraq issue, China can provide substantial help in Iraq is almost zero.
Iran, China's attitude problem seems more motivated. questions for China, Iran to the United States is also involved in the geopolitical fighting operations. If Iran eventually controlled by the United States, China westward advance on the basic possibility of losing land. Although it was very far into the future what might happen, but today also need to whom the layout. If we want to The time to act to implement the strategy, but embarrassed to find that the action has been impossible to carry out.
Iran is a land link to Europe can not rely on the region, for China is entirely different. one of China's all-weather ally Pakistan presence in Iran we have a play room. coupled with the high contract with Iran. a lot of weapons to Iran. It all depends Iran will seriously consider China's attitude. More importantly, in Iran, not just in China and Europe, Russia will play its role.
was once Iran's domestic issues there have been saying the Taiwan issue. Not to mention that this approach can be achieved technically,UGGs, strategically on the desirable. the Taiwan issue, we do not not a solution. just want to the best way to solve Bale. and Iran, once out of control, you want to go back to the starting point, the difficulty is not able to easily imagine the. Therefore, this argument even more than a war that China was out to get even more ridiculous statement to training.
ago, said the United States in the establishment of Africa Command. why the United States does not engage in so many years? waited till now to do. I believe we all remember, last year's Africa Cooperation Forum Beijing Summit of the momentum is indeed vast. this regard, the United States have formed a pressure. This pressure, it is mainly in soft power, but does not rule out changes in the hard power 条件.
the one hand, Africa a lot of resources. resources in the twenty-first century for any country is extremely important. Tuoli 格局 the world, perhaps for the U.S. hegemony in the world today, it does highlight the importance of African resources. but the world still exists China. cooperation between China and Africa, a relatively greater gains in Africa. Here, such a large revenue from China is not just the principle of unity for the third world. There is also the economic structure itself. Objectively speaking, scissors profit is bound to exist. This is, for Europe, China, Africa, is the same. not the same as reflected in China and Africa, the economic gap between the relatively small. China can be obtained relatively scissors profit small. Africa needs is not high-end products from the United States, Africa needs cheap goods. cheap means for Africa to improve the standard of living relative.
capital and technology transfer from the point of view, China is also in Africa more suitable for direction. U.S. industrial chain has completed the upgrade, after completion of the industrialization and no more can be transferred to the industry in Africa. Of course, Africa's own level of education, relatively low quality of labor is also a factor. For China , this barrier is much smaller. rely on China's own labor-intensive industries began. But China also is bound to embark on industrial upgrading of the road. Africa is the transfer of capital and technology intensive industries a good direction.
is because of China in the African region are broad prospects for the U.S. only sit still, to establish Africa Command. the political, military and economic aspects of this three years, the U.S. capacity of Africa's political operation did not seem stronger than the Chinese . China in the Third World countries has shown affinity for the United States as the most developed capitalist countries can not match. Economically speaking, the United States for the plundering of Africa is much worse than important, the changes brought to Africa is very less. Only military forces in Africa, the United States to occupy the dominant position of power.
by the military to enter, to change its political and economic cooperation with Africa is relatively weak status quo, to contain China in Africa, the excellent prospects. Can a foothold in Africa, the world is bullish on China has a decisive influence. The United States is precisely the preparation of the African Middle East. Of course, the political economy of military confrontation is not no chance of winning. In fact, the U.S. response has been somewhat blunted. or said the United States not previously recognized the significance of Africa to China.
Europe Africa on a geographical advantage. But the economic situation in Europe and the United States similar. politically can not join forces. militarily more can not be compared with the United States. so In China's influence in Africa prior to a certain extent, the United States and not pay enough attention. However, the United States to establish Africa Command, the European influence will inevitably exist. recently had a topic of concern is the U.S. anti-missile System. the one hand, Eastern Europe, on the other hand, is East Asia. Here, the so-called preparedness Iran or North Korea to say, as a joke on the line. a little bit of common sense that Americans will not believe that a small trick.
Europe is actually very helpless. Europe is not a country, many members of the European Union from a holistic perspective is difficult to interpret interests. For the interest, they each have their own needs. in the European continent, France and Germany worthy leader. this point, the size and location as well as from the national perspective on the comprehensive national strength is no doubt.
Just think, if Europe and the United States has become the financial center of a level, then who in turn in this environment, benefit the most? Or Germany and France. It is because of this, Germany and France entered the anti-missile system in Eastern Europe is the least positive. Poland and the Czech Republic are NATO members,UGG bailey button, but also the EU member states. came from the political , Germany, France, and they can not be separated.
Russia after the end of the Cold War the protection of national security is the most favorable strategic nuclear missiles. anti-missile system from Russia psychologically greatly stimulated. Russia is not impossible for such a move reflected. Naturally, the conflict intensified in Eastern Europe. The contradictions are contradictions in the U.S. and Russia, but also EU-Russia conflict. In this conflict, the relative cost of the largest is Russia, it is absolutely the most costly in Europe.
He Khrushchev visited the United States came back on Chairman Mao once said: important reasons. the socialist camp to so many countries. China and the Soviet Union has also not of one mind. how many Eastern European countries have plundered it to the Soviet Union? Banded-style looting after the return of the strategic line is a complete collapse. believes that the Russian people will not do not see it. Yeltsin Why are so keen to embrace the West, the shock therapy? It is because Yeltsin's imagination, this can bring a lot of money to Russia. In the end, these things did not come.
Russia if you want to once again become a world-class country, will need to become a gathering place of capital flows. simply by myself, it is too difficult. Yaoxiang to lay the foundation for the future, Russia has two tasks. One is the development of their own, the second is to their own countries more secure. in Russia began to take off, the United States Shazhao has arrived. Putting aside the United States is not intended against Russia, but can be seen that this trick for Russia's influence is quite substantial.
in and China to move toward cooperation, the Russia's main strategic direction is west. north China has become a land auxiliary to his political advantage. This advantage in a very long time have not changed. But Russia's major strategic direction is to improve the safety and immediately after they are dropped. Chechen issue aside here, mainly about Eastern Europe.
Man is a creature of thought. But the human mind is not as accurate as the computer. For investors, he is difficult to figure out the impact of anti-missile system, how much. They only know that is the ABM anti-missile system's. The national security of Russia's most powerful anti-missile protection system is. This world Russia's most powerful countries that security does not seem sharp as it used to be a. In particular, the United States can keep expanding in the future anti-missile system in Eastern Europe the means to scale. This retention means, for Russia has a great deterrent.
Russia, of course, do not want without a fight. that is not Russia. Russia's counterattack will be how I play? course not only against the United States. Both Poland and the Czech Republic have become the target of Russia. If a country like Germany and France,UGG boots cheap, not here species of the issue of EU-Russia contest the position of standing in Europe, they may be in Europe out of political isolation. After all, Germany and France is not a country. they Who is behind this issue, though is a unique , looks very beautiful, but not necessarily competing for dominance in Europe has a positive meaning.
the intensification of EU-Russia conflict for Russia's future is not good news. Now the former Soviet Union, Russia has not. you want from a strategic formation on the previous advantages for Europe is too difficult. If you can not reverse the current deterioration of relations between this and the situation in Europe. Russia is likely in the future for a long period of time can not get out of this state of insecurity. This is not to say that Russia possible war would fail, but that investors will lack confidence in Russia.
For Russia, the biggest threat to national security, but not Europe, but the United States. Europe and Russia against even those in Europe State will not be a whole. They themselves are defensive strategy, but in the United States to promote and support appear offensive. antimissile system allows the world recognize that the Cold War did not like the way people think in the end. at least the United States do not let the meaning of Russia. such a signal, for the Russian people, is a very cruel blow. U.S. global strike capability of the total world view, not the former Soviet Union and Russia has long been the strength of the year. In addition to strategic nuclear weapons, local problems, the United States for Russia also has the overwhelming advantage. I do not want to doubt Russia the possibility of using nuclear weapons against the United States. the author of this paper, the discussion of the possibility of use of nuclear weapons is basically no value. For investors When the war of nuclear weapons in the United States to be used, all of the discussion is nonsense. because the world is no longer a safe place.
Europe, however, has not got any in this one too many benefits, but there is no small loss. and Russia, the European world, the same will be considered unsafe. Russia's forces out there. This confrontation, once the tension, a lot of money will flow to the United States seems secure. As the absolute value of the European economy large, so the absolute loss of such flows are bound to be much larger than the economies of scale are lagging far behind Russia.
Eastern Europe, participants in the third against the U.S., safety is also slightly decreased. However, his decline and Russia Compared to Europe, it is not on a level. Russia's capital is relatively less. But in Europe, but the U.S. will bring money. Thus, the absolute safety of the United States dropped the case against it in Eastern Europe to get this closed system increase in the relative safety of the results, sooner or later attract large quantities of capital from Europe.
look at Asia. the relationship between Japan and China is somewhat similar to the relationship between Europe and Russia. The European decision-making errors, is because he himself is not a state, divergence of interests led to the inevitable benefit assessment approach to change. Japan and China are due to the deadlock between the obscure. Whatever the future of China's nuclear strategy and nuclear policy change, to keep the United States a nuclear deterrent that will not change. anti-missile system established in Japan, no matter for what purpose, China will strengthen anti-missile base on the Japanese homeland attack capability, to ensure that the wartime system of complete and effective nuclear deterrent.
only in the Asian region, the impact of such action to the Chinese than in Europe for Russia's influence small. After all, China and Japan, was originally very difficult for easing relations. made in Japan After such a choice, they can already be seen as Japan's lack of cooperation in East Asia and China's attitude. So, in Japan chose this path of confrontation, when, whether to deploy anti-missile system, but not important. Of course, the United States not only just pull up the Japanese, but also drew the Taiwan. This is in fact a psychological hint. really get to the war, the United States may not be willing to protect the integrity of their own anti-missile system and a war with China. However, In the eyes of the owners of capital, the possibility of Sino-US conflict has greatly increased.
the United States, the United States to deploy anti-missile system and the direction away from China and Japan's capital than it probably is simply insignificant . the existence of anti-missile system itself is not that what the U.S. national interest for you? in front of the national interest, gave up a missile defense system but also how what? let alone an already ...
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